If the past is indeed prologue, a look at the exit polls from the
presidential primaries in Michigan and Arizona may give us a sneak
peek at the contests that come up on Super Tuesday and the week after.
These contests include Michigan's neighbor Ohio and Dixie primaries in
Oklahoma, Tennessee, Georgia, Alabama, and Mississippi. Analysis of
this week's results suggests the road ahead could be rocky for former
Gov. Mitt Romney.
Mitt Romney may have the Midas touch but he clearly doesn't have the
common touch. In Michigan and in Arizona, he did much better with rich
people then he did with working people. This pattern spells trouble in
the five southern contests coming up where incomes are lower.
[See a collection of political cartoons on Mitt Romney.]
Ohio may be tough for Romney without the help he got from his father's
legacy in nearby Michigan. Romney captured half of the senior vote in
Michigan but only a third of the youth vote. This suggests that older
voters who remembered the candidate's father were disposed to vote for
the son. In Michigan, Rep. Ron Paul was the big winner among
millennial voters.
Romney captured the minds of voters in both states but former Sen.
Rick Santorum captured their hearts. Romney kicked butt with voters
who were looking for a candidate who could beat President Barack Obama
and who was experienced. But Santorum scored well with primary voters
who wanted a true conservative and someone who has strong moral
character.
[See a collection of political cartoons on Rick Santorum.]
Santorum is in danger of becoming a one-trick pony. Santorum's
emphasis on social issues might have cost him support among economic
conservatives. In both states, the former Pennsylvania senator did
much better with born again Christians than he did with Tea Party
supporters. In Michigan, Santorum captured three-quarters of the
prolife vote, but only a third of the voters who were most concerned
about the federal budget deficit and the economy supported Santorum.
Santorum's religious base should help him in the upcoming southern
states where there are large numbers of evangelicals but hurt him over
the long haul in states that are more secular. This pattern may also
be an indication that religious conservatives question Romney's Mormon
beliefs.
Romney's victories in Michigan and Arizona Tuesday night may hurt him
next week on Super Tuesday. After Tuesday's two contests, Mitt Romney
looks like the inevitable GOP nominee for president for the 12th or
13th different time. But every time it looks like Mitt will be the
guy, Republicans get a case of buyer's remorse and slap him down. All
things considered, the next couple of weeks could be ugly for Romney
and put his quest for the nomination in doubt again. These contests
include Michigan's neighbor Ohio and Dixie primaries in Oklahoma,
Tennessee, Georgia, Alabama, and Mississippi. Analysis of this week's
results suggests the road ahead could be rocky for former Gov. Mitt
Romney.
again.